El tipo de cambio paralelo trepa otros $33 y marca nuevo récord nominal; los financieros suben hasta $19
En la última semana, no llegó ni una sola buena noticia cambiaria a la Argentina. Entre una inflación que encontró piso en un 7% mensual, las dificultades que encuentra el Banco Central para hacerse de dólares pese a la puesta en marcha del dólar agro y los roces que se desataron dentro de la Casa Rosada, el mercado confirmó que todas las variables macro se encuentran deterioradas. Esas tensiones se ven reflejadas tanto en el blue como en los dólares financieros, que hoy anotan su séptima rueda consecutiva al alza y marcan un nuevo récord nominal.
Es otro día de incertidumbre en la City porteña. Mientras que algunos arbolitos decidieron detener las ventas y ponerse en una posición compradora, este martes el precio de referencia alcanza los $495. Son $33 más frente a la rueda anterior (+7,1%), el salto porcentual más fuerte desde el 4 de julio pasado, primer día hábil en que Martín Guzmán renunció al Ministerio de Economía. En la semana, ya acumula un avance de $53 (+12%) y en las últimas siete ruedas, de $95 (+23,75%).
“No nos sorprende en absoluto lo que ha sucedido durante las últimas jornadas en materia cambiaria. En realidad, lo sorprendente era que el nivel de brecha se ubicara en la zona del 85% en un marco de elevada inconsistencia macroeconómica. La mala situación del campo, tantas veces alertada, desnudó una evidente debilidad coyuntural y estructural que finalmente se reflejó en las principales variables financieras, monetarias y cambiarias”, consideraron desde la sociedad de bolsa Delphos Investment.
Al contrastar con el tipo de cambio mayorista, que hoy cotiza a $220,85, la brecha frente al blue es de un 124%. Para Portfolio Personal de Inversiones, los niveles actuales incrementan los temores de un salto discreto del tipo de cambio oficial y, en consecuencia, comienza a trabarse la economía real por incertidumbre sobre el costo de reposición.
“La brecha es siempre la variable real, para mí más relevante que el valor nominal. Los niveles actuales marcan un nuevo salto de incertidumbre y un nuevo proceso de búsqueda de cobertura. La economía seguirá funcionando mal, como lo está haciendo hasta ahora, con una nominalidad que se sigue retroalimentando y una brecha que es el indicador de que nada cierra”, señaló Gabriel Caamaño, socio de la consultora Ledesma.
La brecha continúa en niveles inferiores a otros momentos recientes de extrema volatilidad. En perspectiva, en octubre de 2020 fue del 149,7%, mientras que en julio de 2022 alcanzó un 160%. Sin embargo, en términos históricos, los valores actuales son cercanos a diciembre de 2002, cuando todavía no se había solucionado la incertidumbre política posterior a la crisis de 2001, según relevamiento de AdCap Grupo Financiero.
Los tipos de cambio financieros, cotizaciones legales que surgen de la compra-venta de bonos, hoy también abren la jornada en máximos nominales. El dólar MEP cotiza a $467,89, casi $19 más arriba que la rueda anterior (+4,3%). El dólar contado con liquidación (CCL) se negocia a $480,07, lo que muestra un avance diario de $18 (+4,1%).
Fuente: La Nación.
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