El director del Departamento del Hemisferio Occidental del organismo, Rodrigo Valdés, encabezó una conferencia de prensa en las reuniones que se realizan en Washington; qué dijo sobre el dólar y la posibilidad de obtener fondos frescos.
El director del Departamento del Hemisferio Occidental del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Rodrigo Valdés, elogió los resultados del Gobierno de Javier Milei en sostener el superávit fiscal en el primer trimestre, bajar la inflación y acumular reservas en el Banco Central. El funcionario anticipó que el país complió “con un amplio margen” las metas del programa correspondientes al primer trimestre, un primer reconocimiento oficial del organismo sobre algo que el Ministerio de Economía había anticipado esta semana en medio de la gestión que lleva adelante Luis Caputo por fondos frescos.
“El plan de estabilización de la autoridad ha dado mejores resultados de los que esperábamos, que los que obtuvimos en nuestra última revisión del programa. Tenemos el primer superávit fiscal en una década. Las reservas se renuevan de manera decisiva día tras día. El balance del banco central se está fortaleciendo y la inflación, aunque aún alta, está bajando más rápidamente de lo que anticipamos”, dijo Valdés en una conferencia de prensa en el marco de las reuniones de primavera que realiza en Washington por estos días el FMI junto al Banco Mundial.
“La información preliminar también sugiere que los objetivos clave del programa durante marzo se cumplieron con márgenes importantes”, afirmó. La octava revisión del acuerdo con Argentina, de la cual depende un desembolso de USD 800 millones, se realizará en mayo próximo aunque es el primer pronunciamiento oficial del organismo sobre el cumplimiento de esos targets. Los metas contemplaban sumar reservas por USD 6.000 millones, un superávit fiscal de $962.000 millones y mantener en cero la asistencia monetaria al Tesoro.
En este marco, Caputo viajó esta semana a la capital estadounidense para participar del encuentro de primavera. Allí mantuvo reuniones con, entre otros, la número dos del Fondo, Gita Gopinath; el subsecretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, Jay Shambaugh, y el director de la CIA, Williams Burns. Es un nuevo episodio de las conversaciones iniciadas desde el inicio del mandato libertario con el FMI para hacer virar el programa vigente hacia una nueva dirección que pueda incluir apoyo financiero adicional.
Valdés reiteró que las discusiones con el equipo del ministro de Economía, Luis Caputo, se han centrado en “mejorar la calidad y durabilidad del ajuste fiscal, además de cómo ajustar mejor las políticas del Banco Central para continuar reduciendo la inflación y reconstruir las reservas”.
En cuanto a la posibilidad de eliminar el cepo cambiario, el director del Departamento del Hemisferio Occidental, consideró que cualquier eliminación de los controles de capital deberá considerarse cuidadosamente, “teniendo en cuenta el alcance de los desequilibrios que aún tiene la economía, el colchón de reservas que debemos construir y fortalecer el marco de políticas”.
Para Valdés los controles cambiarios locales son “un conjunto de medidas que deben revisarse”. “Algunos de ellos son bastante importantes para el crecimiento, otros son menos importantes para el crecimiento. No es trivial la secuencia sobre cómo revisarlos, y estamos discutiendo activamente con las autoridades cuáles serían los mejores caminos”, explicó.
El FMI presentó esta semana su informe de Perspectivas Económicas Globales (WEO). Allí proyectaron que el país tendrá en 2024 una caída del 2,8% del PBI y que la inflación acumulará 150% en el año. Para 2025 prevén que la economía rebote 5% y los precios minoristas desciendan al 45 por ciento.
Los analistas locales señalan que luego de la devaluación de diciembre el tipo de cambio se depreció respecto a estos niveles, con un crawling peg del 2% mensual y una inflación por encima de los dos dígitos. “Determinar el tipo de cambio real de equilibrio es muy difícil en todas partes”, añadió.
“Pero lo que puedo decir es que es fundamental que, al final, las políticas tengan que ser coherentes, y eso incluye un nivel del tipo de cambio real efectivo; es un resultado, no una política, para salvaguardar realmente la estabilidad y la acumulación de reservas”, concluyó Valdés.
Durante la presentación del WEO, el economista jefe del Fondo, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, elogió el “impresionante” avance del ajuste fiscal y monetario del Gobierno, aunque destacó la necesidad de una “implementación firme”. “Es necesario hacer mucho más, y es necesario hacer mucho más en una escala más amplia”, dijo el funcionario.
Fuente: infobae.
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